Ross Stores, Inc. Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Retail Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $195.17median of 6 methods · middle span $167-$323based on filings through 1 Aug 2026 Market Price $234.10Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $75.1B Enterprise Value $71.8B Shares Outstanding 318.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ross Stores entered the second half of fiscal 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: second-quarter comparable-store sales rose 10%, primarily through customer traffic, diluted EPS reached $2.66, and management raised second-half sales, full-year EPS, and store-opening guidance. The evidence supports a constructive operating view, but approximately $0.60 of second-quarter and full-year EPS reflects tariff refunds rather than recurring operations, while management also faces substantially harder comparisons in the second half. A valuation-based upside conclusion cannot be substantiated; Hold is therefore the appropriately cautious recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$176.00 Mean target$255.44 High · most bullish analyst$290.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $176.0020% Comparable-store sales fall below the raised guidance range as difficult comparisons, consumer pressure, trade-policy uncertainty, or weaker merchandise availability offset current traffic gains. Fiscal 2026 EPS falls below $8.61 after separating the nonrecurring tariff-refund benefit, weakening evidence that first-half momentum is durable. Base CaseCentral scenario $255.4460% Matches the consensus meanSecond-half comparable-store sales and EPS remain within management's raised guidance, with fiscal 2026 diluted EPS between $8.61 and $8.77 and approximately 115 new stores opened. Growth moderates against harder comparisons but remains supported by customer traffic and execution. Bull CaseUpside scenario $290.0020% Traffic growth, broader customer engagement, merchandising initiatives, and store expansion continue to outperform management's raised expectations. Comparable-store sales remain above the 6%-7% fiscal-Q3 and 4%-5% fiscal-Q4 guidance ranges, underlying margin improvement persists after excluding tariff refunds, and the company executes its 115-store opening plan. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |