Root Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty Beta (adjusted)2.26 Intrinsic Value $95.62median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $46.11Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 107% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+107%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $714.4M Enterprise Value $402.6M Shares Outstanding 17.1M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Root, Inc. has successfully transitioned from a high-burn insurtech startup to a structurally profitable technology-driven insurance carrier. By leveraging its proprietary telematics risk engine and AI-native claims architecture, Root achieved its most profitable quarter in company history in Q1 2026, reporting a record net income of $35.9 million and an annualized ROE of 47%. The company's strategic pivot toward low-risk, high-margin policyholders, combined with deep technical integrations like the Carvana partnership (surpassing 200,000 policies sold), has dramatically improved unit economics. Furthermore, the successful refinancing of its $200 million debt facility reduces interest expenses by approximately $4.5 million annually, while a newly authorized $75 million share repurchase program underscores management's confidence in its capital structure and cash generation capabilities. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$50.00 Mean target$60.20 High · most bullish analyst$80.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Intense competition from legacy auto insurers with larger marketing budgets limits Root's policyholder growth. A severe catastrophe season or unexpected inflation in claims severity pushes the combined ratio back above 100%, reversing recent profitability trends. Direct channel softness persists, forcing the company to rely solely on lower-margin agency channels. Base CaseCentral scenario Root continues to expand its independent agent distribution channel toward its 100,000 eligible producer target and successfully launches in New Jersey and other pending states in 2026. Underwriting discipline keeps the combined ratio below 95%, and partnership channels grow steadily. The company achieves stronger full-year 2026 net income compared to 2025, supported by $4.5 million in annual interest savings. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |