Rollins Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEnvironmental & Facilities Services Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $44.07median of 6 methods · middle span $39-$56based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 44% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.7B Enterprise Value $15.1B Shares Outstanding 481M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Rollins retains a durable, recurring and capital-light operating model, but its latest quarter showed a material gap between current execution and the medium-term growth algorithm. Q2 2026 organic revenue growth was 5.7%, residential organic growth was 3.6%, and adjusted incremental EBITDA margin was 6.5%, while management targets 7%-8% medium-term organic growth and a 30%-35% medium-term incremental margin. Free cash flow conversion remained above 100%, and management still expects at least 6% organic growth and at least a 10% adjusted incremental EBITDA margin for FY2026. A Hold stance is appropriate pending evidence that residential lead generation and margin execution are recovering. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$32.00 Mean target$45.59 High · most bullish analyst$66.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $32.0020% Weak consumer-initiated residential demand persists, organic growth falls below the updated 6% FY2026 floor, and the cost structure remains misaligned with demand, keeping adjusted incremental EBITDA margin below 10%. Continued acquisition spending or working-capital pressure could then reduce free cash flow conversion toward or below 100%. Base CaseCentral scenario $45.5955% Matches the consensus meanRollins delivers approximately the updated FY2026 operating outlook: at least 6% organic growth, 2%-3% acquisition growth, at least a 10% adjusted incremental EBITDA margin, and free cash flow conversion above 100%. Residential demand improves only gradually, delaying achievement of the 7%-8% organic-growth and 30%-35% incremental-margin medium-term objectives. Bull CaseUpside scenario $66.0025% Consumer-initiated residential lead volumes continue the improvement management observed late in June and early July, quarterly organic growth returns to at least the 7% lower bound of the medium-term objective, and operating changes restore substantially stronger incremental margins. Acquisitions add 2%-3% growth without weakening free cash flow conversion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |