Roku Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryEntertainment Beta (adjusted)1.69 Intrinsic Value $106.64median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $151.26Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $22.5B Enterprise Value $20.9B Shares Outstanding 155.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date30 Jun 2027 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Roku is primarily an event-driven security following the definitive agreement for FOX to acquire the company for consideration announced at $160 per share, consisting of $96 in cash and 0.9693 FOX Class A shares. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027 but remains subject to shareholder, U.S. and non-U.S. regulatory, and other customary approvals. Standalone execution is strong: second-quarter 2026 Platform revenue increased 25% to $1.22 billion, Platform gross margin reached 53.0%, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow reached a record $704 million. These fundamentals provide support if closing is delayed, but the fixed stock exchange ratio exposes ultimate consideration to FOXA price movements, while a failed transaction would remove the announced deal-value reference. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$150.00 Mean target$162.45 High · most bullish analyst$205.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $96.0015% Regulatory review materially delays or prevents closing, required approvals are not obtained, or FOXA weakens substantially before completion. The $96 stress reference equals only the contractual cash component and is not represented as an independently derived deal-break fair value; it highlights that $64 of the announced $160 reference value came from variable FOX stock consideration. Base CaseCentral scenario $162.4560% Matches the consensus meanThe transaction closes substantially on its announced terms after a normal regulatory review. Actual value at closing will vary with FOXA because each Roku share receives $96 in cash plus 0.9693 FOX Class A shares. Bull CaseUpside scenario $160.0025% The transaction obtains approvals and closes within the announced first-half 2027 window, FOXA maintains at least the reference value used when the agreement was announced, and Roku sustains strong Platform growth and cash generation through closing. The strategic combination benefits from Roku's reach of more than 100 million households and FOX's content, advertising capabilities, and expected cost synergies. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |