Rogers Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Rogers Corp

ROGNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryElectronic Components

Beta (adjusted)0.66

Intrinsic Value $128.08median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $155.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $2.8B

Enterprise Value $2.6B

Shares Outstanding 17.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend9 Jan 1992

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Rogers Corporation (NYSE: ROG) is a global leader in engineered materials positioned at the intersection of secular growth trends, including electric vehicles (EVs), advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), and high-performance computing. Following a period of transition under interim leadership, the permanent appointment of turnaround specialist Ali El-Haj as CEO in May 2026 has injected renewed optimism. The company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated strong operational execution, with adjusted EPS more than doubling year-over-year to $0.75 on net sales of $200.5 million. Despite near-term demand unevenness in automotive markets, Rogers' robust, virtually debt-free balance sheet ($195.8 million in cash vs. $29.8 million in debt) provides exceptional strategic flexibility to fund R&D and capitalize on long-term electrification and high-frequency connectivity opportunities.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$150.00

Mean target$173.33

High · most bullish analyst$200.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$150.00

The bear case reflects prolonged weakness in global automotive markets, slow inventory digestion among power electronics customers, and delays in the China Curamik facility ramp-up. Geopolitical tensions and foreign exchange volatility pressure margins, while competitive pricing in ceramic substrates limits top-line growth. Under this scenario, gross margins compress back to 30%, and EPS falls below $2.50, leading to a contraction in the valuation multiple.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$173.33

Matches the consensus mean

The base case projects steady, mid-single-digit revenue growth driven by industrial and electronics recovery, offsetting near-term automotive softness. Operating margins improve gradually through disciplined cost controls and capacity optimization. The company achieves consensus FY 2026 EPS of approximately $3.64 and revenue of $860.9 million, supported by Q2 sales guidance of $210 million to $220 million. The stock trades near its consensus target, supported by its strong balance sheet and secular tailwinds.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$200.00

The bull case assumes a rapid reacceleration in EV/HEV adoption and a faster-than-expected ramp-up of high-performance computing and AI data center infrastructure materials. Under CEO Ali El-Haj, operational efficiencies and cost-cutting initiatives yield significant operating leverage, expanding gross margins toward 35% and driving annual EPS toward $4.50. Valuation multiples expand as the market fully prices in Rogers' dominant niche position in high-frequency laminates and ceramic substrates.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant market leadership in high-frequency circuit materials and power substrates with high barriers to entry.
Exceptional balance sheet with a strong net cash position, providing strategic flexibility without high-interest debt reliance.
Strong secular tailwinds from EV electrification, ADAS radar systems, and AI data center infrastructure buildouts.

Key Investment Risks

Cyclicality and uneven demand across core automotive and industrial end markets.
Geopolitical and supply chain risks, particularly related to manufacturing facilities in China and Germany.
Foreign exchange exposure, with significant operations denominated in Euros and Chinese Yuan.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained drop in quarterly gross margins below 30% due to pricing pressure or underutilization.
Significant delays or cost overruns in key product qualifications with major EV OEMs.
A material deterioration of the net cash position due to operational inefficiencies or unsuccessful capital allocation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.