Rogers Communications Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryWireless Telecommunication Services Beta (adjusted)0.76 Intrinsic Value $67.77median of 6 methods · middle span $32-$129based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $30.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 121% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+121%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $16.6B Enterprise Value $56.9B Shares Outstanding 540M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Rogers is producing stronger free cash flow as capital intensity declines, while core Wireless and Cable EBITDA remain resilient and consolidated Media benefits from MLSE. These positives are balanced by flat Wireless service revenue, lower mobile-phone ARPU, elevated leverage, and execution risk surrounding the C$4.35 billion purchase of the remaining 25% of MLSE and the intended subsequent sale of a minority interest in the consolidated sports assets. The resulting risk-reward supports a Hold pending clearer evidence of sustained core growth, post-transaction deleveraging, and successful sports monetization. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$36.44 Mean target$42.61 High · most bullish analyst$51.80 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $36.4423% Competitive pricing drives further Wireless ARPU erosion and weaker subscriber economics, free cash flow falls below guidance, and leverage rises materially after the MLSE purchase. A delayed or lower-valued sports minority sale limits debt reduction and increases financing and capital-allocation pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $42.6157% Matches the consensus meanRogers delivers within its reaffirmed 2026 guidance, with capital efficiency and Media growth offsetting muted organic Wireless growth and continued ARPU pressure. The remaining MLSE interest closes in the fourth quarter, while a minority sports-asset sale takes up to the indicated following year and deleveraging remains gradual. Bull CaseUpside scenario $51.8020% Rogers reaches the upper end of its 2026 service-revenue, adjusted-EBITDA, and free-cash-flow guidance; churn remains controlled; Cable growth persists; and Media converts strong sports demand into durable EBITDA. The MLSE purchase closes as expected, followed by a well-valued minority sale of Rogers Sports that accelerates deleveraging. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |