Rockwell Automation Inc Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryElectrical Components & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.36 Intrinsic Value $306.76median of 6 methods · middle span $272-$321based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $442.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $49.2B Enterprise Value $51.3B Shares Outstanding 112.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Rockwell entered the final quarter of FY2026 with strong operating momentum: Q3 organic sales increased 10%, organic ARR increased 6%, enterprise operating margin reached 22.3%, and management raised full-year sales and adjusted-EPS guidance. Software & Control was particularly strong, but Lifecycle Services remained soft and management identified negative price/cost pressure. With Rockwell's official investor-relations page showing a $430.86 share price as of August 28, 2026, the base scenario offers limited appreciation unless elevated growth and margin performance persist. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$282.00 Mean target$478.21 High · most bullish analyst$550.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $282.0018% Customer capital-spending cyclicality, tariff or price/cost pressure, and weaker project activity reduce organic growth below guidance. Continued Lifecycle Services weakness and enterprise operating margin below 20% would undermine the margin-expansion thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $478.2158% Matches the consensus meanFY2026 results finish within management's 7.5%-9.5% organic-sales-growth and $13.00-$13.30 adjusted-EPS ranges, while ARR grows near 6% and enterprise margin normalizes modestly from Q3. Bull CaseUpside scenario $550.0024% Demand in semiconductor, data center, warehouse automation, automotive, and life sciences remains strong; Software & Control sustains double-digit organic growth; organic ARR accelerates; and enterprise operating margin remains near or above Q3's 22.3%. Execution near the upper ends of FY2026 guidance supports a higher valuation outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |