Rocket Companies Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance Beta (adjusted)1.79 Intrinsic Value $13.94median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $11.97Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $33.9B Enterprise Value $41.6B Shares Outstanding 2.8B diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Mar 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Rocket entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 adjusted revenue was $2.761 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $766 million, total closed origination volume reached $49.1 billion, and purchase and refinance market share reached record quarterly levels. The enlarged servicing platform, Redfin funnel and AI-enabled conversion tools create credible structural upside. Offsetting factors include mortgage-cycle and gain-on-sale-margin sensitivity, mortgage-servicing-right valuation volatility, and continuing execution demands following the Redfin and Mr. Cooper acquisitions. The scenarios deliberately omit numerical price targets and the recommendation remains Hold rather than asserting unsupported valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.00 Mean target$17.70 High · most bullish analyst$21.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $14.0018% Mortgage demand or gain-on-sale economics weaken, recent market-share gains reverse, and acquisition integration or servicing-platform complexity prevents expected operating leverage. Earnings would then remain highly exposed to origination conditions and mortgage-servicing-right valuation changes. Base CaseCentral scenario $17.7057% Matches the consensus meanRocket delivers adjusted revenue within its $2.5-$2.7 billion Q3 guidance range, retains most recent market-share gains and captures incremental benefits from its integrated search, origination and servicing platform. Mortgage-market cyclicality and integration costs temper the upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $21.0025% Purchase and refinance share continue rising, Redfin produces more mortgage leads and higher attach rates, servicing recapture improves, and AI tools expand loan-officer capacity. These effects sustain origination growth and operating leverage beyond the current difficult housing environment. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |