Roblox Corp Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryInteractive Home Entertainment Beta (adjusted)1.28 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $43.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $30.7B Enterprise Value $30.7B Shares Outstanding 725.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Roblox presents a high-risk Buy based on substantial audience scale, positive free-cash-flow momentum and longer-term monetization opportunities among older users, subscriptions and a broader creator ecosystem. The central concern is the abrupt deceleration in bookings: Q2 2026 bookings grew only 8% and management guided Q3 bookings to decline 14%-18%. The constructive thesis therefore depends on the Q3 decline representing a difficult-comparison and product-transition trough rather than a persistent deterioration in engagement or spending. Safety and recommendation-system changes may strengthen platform durability and retention, but they are currently creating measurable tension between long-term user quality and near-term monetization. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$49.44 High · most bullish analyst$95.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $30.0021% Bookings fall below the Q3 guidance floor, average DAUs retreat below the Q2 baseline and lower hourly monetization persists despite retention-oriented discovery changes. Safety-related friction and a weaker content cycle delay monetization recovery, while new subscriptions and older-audience initiatives fail to offset weakness in younger cohorts. Base CaseCentral scenario $49.4456% Matches the consensus meanQ3 bookings remain within the guided $1.58-$1.65 billion range, followed by gradual stabilization as safety and discovery changes mature. DAUs remain near or above the Q2 baseline and free cash flow stays positive, but bookings growth recovers only progressively because lower hourly monetization offsets part of the retention benefit. Bull CaseUpside scenario $70.0023% Bookings recover after the Q3 comparison trough as recommendation changes improve retention, older-user growth supports higher monetization, Roblox Plus expands recurring activity and creator initiatives broaden the content mix. Sustained positive cash generation increases confidence that Roblox can fund safety and platform investment while preserving strategic flexibility. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |