RLJ Lodging Trust Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Hotel & Motel Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value $10.53median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $11.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $3.5B Shares Outstanding 152.7M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary RLJ Lodging Trust is executing a highly successful recovery trade in 2026, driven by a robust rebound in urban travel demand, sequential RevPAR acceleration, and the elimination of near-term refinancing risks. The company's urban-centric, premium-branded portfolio is uniquely positioned to capture major event-driven catalysts (such as the upcoming FIFA World Cup) and structural recoveries in key markets like Northern California. Trading at an undemanding multiple of its raised 2026 adjusted FFO guidance, RLJ offers an attractive risk-reward profile with a well-covered dividend yield and a newly authorized $250 million share buyback program. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$9.50 Mean target$11.45 High · most bullish analyst$13.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.5020% A broader macroeconomic slowdown or persistent high energy prices dampen discretionary leisure and business travel spending. Operating margins face compression from sticky labor and utility costs, while expiring favorable fixed-rate interest swaps in 2027 introduce interest rate headwinds, limiting bottom-line profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.4550% Matches the consensus meanRLJ successfully delivers on its updated FY 2026 guidance, achieving midpoint Adjusted FFO of approximately $1.37 per share. Urban hotel demand remains resilient, and the company maintains stable operating margins through disciplined cost controls. Refinancing transactions completed in early 2026 keep interest expenses predictable, supporting a steady valuation recovery. Bull CaseUpside scenario $13.7030% Accelerating corporate group travel and massive event-driven demand (FIFA World Cup, conventions) drive RevPAR growth well above the guided 1.5%-3.5% range. Northern California's AI-fueled recovery continues at a rapid pace, and aggressive share repurchases under the $250 million program drive significant FFO-per-share accretion, leading to multiple expansion toward historical averages. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |