Rithm Capital Corp Dossier
|
SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Mortgage Beta (adjusted)1.09 Intrinsic Value $8.28median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $8.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.9B Enterprise Value $39.2B Shares Outstanding 578.4M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Rithm Capital Corp. is successfully executing its strategic transformation from a traditional mortgage REIT into a diversified alternative asset manager. By integrating major acquisitions like Sculptor Capital Management and Crestline, Rithm is building a robust fee-generating platform alongside its highly profitable operating companies (Newrez and Genesis Capital). The stock trades at a significant discount to its tangible book value of $12.51, offering an attractive entry point. Furthermore, its high-yielding dividend of 10.5% ($1.00 annualized) remains well-covered by Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) of $0.51 per share in Q1 2026, providing a strong income cushion while the market re-rates the company toward an asset-manager multiple. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.50 Mean target$13.20 High · most bullish analyst$14.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.5020% A severe economic recession leads to rising credit defaults in the residential transitional lending and commercial real estate portfolios. Severe volatility in interest rates causes hedging inefficiencies, leading to substantial GAAP losses and book value erosion. Asset management fundraising stalls, and the complex corporate structure continues to deter investors, keeping the stock at a persistent discount. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.2050% Matches the consensus meanInterest rates remain elevated for longer, supporting high yields on Rithm's massive Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) portfolio. Newrez continues to generate stable cash flows with an operating ROE around 19%, and Genesis Capital meets its FY2026 production target of $6.5B-$7.0B. Asset management fee revenues stabilize, and the stock gradually closes the valuation gap to trade closer to its book value. Bull CaseUpside scenario $14.5030% The Federal Reserve initiates a series of interest rate cuts, sparking a mortgage refinancing wave that drives massive origination volumes and profitability at Newrez. Simultaneously, the asset management business successfully raises significant third-party capital, accelerating AUM growth beyond $70 billion. The commercial real estate segment (Elecor Properties) achieves rapid lease-up and breaks even, leading to a comprehensive valuation re-rating where the stock trades at or above its book value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |