Riskified Ltd Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryApplication Software Beta (adjusted)1.23 Intrinsic Value $5.95median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $7.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 25% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1B Enterprise Value $884.9M Shares Outstanding 132M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Riskified Ltd. (NYSE: RSKD) is demonstrating solid operational execution, highlighted by its first-ever quarter of GAAP profitability in Q4 2025 and a strong start to 2026 with accelerated gross profit growth and raised guidance. The company's AI-powered fraud and risk intelligence platform continues to gain traction, particularly through multi-product adoption and expansion into non-card payment methods like ACH. However, macroeconomic headwinds, high exposure to discretionary consumer spending, and intense competition in the e-commerce fraud prevention space warrant a cautious stance, making the stock a Hold at current valuation levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.75 Mean target$5.65 High · most bullish analyst$7.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.5020% A severe macroeconomic downturn reduces global discretionary e-commerce transaction volumes, directly impacting Riskified's GMV and revenue growth. Increased competitive pressure from players like Forter and Signifyd leads to pricing compression or higher merchant churn. Higher-than-expected fraud or chargeback rates pressure gross margins, causing Adjusted EBITDA to miss the low end of guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.6550% Matches the consensus meanRiskified achieves its raised FY 2026 guidance, with revenue reaching approximately $380 million and Adjusted EBITDA expanding to $31 million. The company maintains steady GMV growth of 8-10% and continues to generate positive free cash flow of around $40 million. Share repurchases continue to support EPS, but the stock trades relatively sideways due to broader macroeconomic uncertainties affecting e-commerce volumes. Bull CaseUpside scenario $7.0030% Accelerated adoption of non-chargeback guarantee products (Policy Protect, AccountSecure, Dispute Resolve) drives higher-margin recurring revenue. Rapid international expansion, particularly in APAC and EMEA, offsets any slowdown in the U.S. market. Continued operational leverage and disciplined cost management lead to significant GAAP net income expansion, prompting a valuation re-rating toward premium SaaS multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |