Riot Platforms Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Riot Platforms Inc

RIOTNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryCapital Markets

Beta (adjusted)2.89

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $19.61Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $7.4B

Enterprise Value $7.7B

Shares Outstanding 355.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend12 Oct 2017

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Riot has materially improved the quality and duration of its commercial opportunity by contracting 241 MW of critical IT capacity with AMD and a frontier AI laboratory, while demonstrating initial delivery capability through the first 25 MW commissioned for AMD. The opportunity remains execution-heavy: most contracted AI capacity is not scheduled for delivery until 2027-2028, development requires substantial financing and construction, and the legacy bitcoin-mining operation remains exposed to bitcoin prices, network difficulty, power costs, and asset depreciation. A Hold stance balances potentially transformative contracted data-center revenue against delivery, funding, concentration, and mining-economics risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$22.00

Mean target$32.40

High · most bullish analyst$45.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$22.0026%

Data-center delivery is delayed or costs exceed expectations, financing becomes more burdensome, or tenant and project concentration weakens anticipated economics. Concurrently, lower bitcoin prices or higher network hash rate and power costs could pressure mining economics, reducing financial flexibility during the data-center construction cycle.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$32.4056%

Matches the consensus mean

The AMD expansion and 191 MW frontier-AI-lab project advance broadly toward their stated milestones, but construction spending, financing requirements, and bitcoin volatility keep results uneven during the buildout. The initial AMD delivery supports execution confidence, while the scale and duration of the next project warrant continued caution.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$45.0018%

Riot delivers AMD's remaining 25 MW on schedule, completes the frontier-AI-lab build substantially in line with the announced 2027-2028 milestones, converts more of its power portfolio into long-duration data-center leases, and maintains adequate financing. Successful execution would shift the earnings mix toward contracted infrastructure revenue while preserving upside from bitcoin mining.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Riot has contracted 241 MW of critical IT capacity across two AI-focused tenants, representing approximately $9.8 billion of announced long-term contract revenue.
The initial 25 MW AMD deployment was delivered on time and on budget, providing early evidence that Riot can execute data-center conversions.
The 191 MW frontier-AI-lab lease has an announced 20-year initial term and estimated cumulative NOI of $7.3 billion to $8.2 billion, creating a potentially durable contracted-infrastructure earnings stream.

Key Investment Risks

The largest data-center lease requires phased delivery of 96 MW by December 2027 and the full 191 MW by June 2028, leaving substantial construction, financing, and schedule risk.
Bitcoin mining remains sensitive to bitcoin prices, global network hash rate, power costs, curtailment credits, and rapid miner depreciation; Q2 2026 cost to mine increased year over year.
A large portion of the data-center thesis depends on two tenants and the successful conversion of specific sites, creating counterparty, project, and geographic concentration.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.