Rhinebeck Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.43 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $12.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $202M Shares Outstanding 15.6M diluted All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Rhinebeck Bancorp, Inc. (RBKB) is undergoing a pivotal strategic transition via its proposed second-step conversion from a mutual holding company structure to a fully public stock holding company. This conversion is expected to eliminate the mutual holding company layer, simplify the corporate structure, and raise substantial capital to support regional growth. Operationally, the bank has demonstrated a strong return to profitability in 2025 with a net income of $10.0 million, driven by net interest margin expansion and disciplined expense management. However, Q1 2026 results showed a slight year-over-year decline in net income to $2.2 million due to lower non-interest income and higher non-interest expenses. Given the execution risks surrounding the conversion, competitive pricing pressures on loan production, and the stock trading at a premium to its book value, a Hold recommendation is warranted until the capital offering is completed and the new capital is deployed productively. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.0015% The stock offering struggles to meet the minimum subscription threshold, delaying or canceling the conversion. Persistent competitive deposit pricing pressures compress the net interest margin below 3.50%, while deterioration in regional commercial real estate markets leads to an increase in non-performing assets. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.5070% The second-step conversion is successfully completed in Q3 2026, raising at least the minimum required capital. The bank utilizes the proceeds to support organic commercial real estate and residential lending in its core Hudson Valley and Capital Region markets, while maintaining stable credit quality and a net interest margin above 3.70%. Bull CaseUpside scenario $18.0025% The second-step conversion is completed with maximum subscription levels, raising $88.8 million. The bank rapidly deploys this capital into high-yielding commercial real estate and commercial business loans in the Hudson Valley and Capital Region, while successfully scaling its digital deposit platform with MANTL to lower funding costs, driving net interest margin expansion above 3.90% and ROE toward 10%. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |