RGC Resources Inc Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryGas Utilities Beta (adjusted)0.68 Intrinsic Value $21.54median of 6 methods · middle span $6-$25based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $225M Enterprise Value $370.9M Shares Outstanding 10.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date23 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary RGC Resources, Inc. (RGCO) operates as a stable, regulated natural gas utility serving Southwest Virginia, complemented by midstream infrastructure investments such as the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP). The company benefits from supportive regulatory mechanisms, including weather normalization and infrastructure riders, which provide predictable cash flows. However, near-term operational headwinds—specifically the idling of a major industrial customer and significant damage to its LNG peak shaving facility that will prevent its use in the upcoming winter—introduce execution risks and potential cost pressures. While the dividend remains stable and recently increased, the stock is fairly valued near its historical multiples, supporting a Hold recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Alternative gas supply arrangements during the winter peak prove highly expensive due to the LNG facility outage, compressing margins. Customer credit risk continues to rise, leading to higher bad debt provisions, while inflationary pressures on operations and maintenance expenses outpace regulatory relief. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully navigates the temporary loss of its LNG peak shaving facility through alternative supply arrangements without major cost overruns. Regulated utility operations continue to deliver stable margins supported by recent rate increases, and the Mountain Valley Pipeline contribution remains steady. EPS meets the narrowed full-year 2026 guidance of $1.31 to $1.37. Bull CaseUpside scenario Steady regulated utility model with infrastructure upgrades (SAVE program) and new base rates driving stable revenue, complemented by long-term growth catalysts from the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) commercial launch and renewable natural gas (RNG) initiatives. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |