Reynolds Consumer Products Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryPackaging & Containers Beta (adjusted)0.69 Intrinsic Value $26.03median of 6 methods · middle span $25-$30based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $21.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.6B Enterprise Value $6.1B Shares Outstanding 211.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN) is a highly stable, cash-generative business with a dominant market share (No. 1 or No. 2 in most categories) across household staples like aluminum foil and trash bags. While the company boasts a strong economic moat driven by brand loyalty (Reynolds Wrap, Hefty) and deep retail relationships, its near-term growth is constrained by cautious 2026 guidance (revenue growth of -3% to +1%) and volume pressures in legacy categories like foam tableware. The stock serves as a reliable income vehicle with a well-covered dividend yield of over 4%, but limited top-line catalysts support a Hold recommendation at current valuation levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$27.14 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $24.0015% Persistent inflation in aluminum and resin prices pressures margins, while consumers trade down to lower-margin private label alternatives at a faster rate. Continued steep declines in the foam tableware category and operational inefficiencies could push adjusted EPS toward the lower end of guidance or below. Base CaseCentral scenario $27.1460% Matches the consensus meanReynolds delivers on its reiterated FY 2026 guidance, with net revenues ranging from -3% to +1% and adjusted EPS between $1.57 and $1.63. The company continues to leverage its strong pricing power and retail relationships to offset moderate input cost inflation, maintaining its steady quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.0025% Accelerated volume recovery in retail segments, successful execution of strategic cost-saving initiatives, and a faster-than-expected stabilization of the foam tableware category. Additionally, a decline in key raw material costs (aluminum and polyethylene) would expand gross margins and drive earnings above the high end of guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |