Rexford Industrial Realty Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Industrial Beta (adjusted)1.13 Intrinsic Value $43.89median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $36.02Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.2B Enterprise Value $11.5B Shares Outstanding 235.4M diluted Next Earnings Date19 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Rexford Industrial Realty is the premier pure-play industrial REIT focused exclusively on the supply-constrained infill Southern California market. While the long-term structural land scarcity and high barriers to entry provide a robust competitive moat, the near-term outlook is pressured by a regional rental reset, rising vacancies, and negative cash re-leasing spreads. Management's proactive capital recycling, including $200 million in Q1 2026 share buybacks and planned dispositions of $400 million to $500 million, supports FFO per share stabilization. However, flat-to-declining Core FFO growth and elevated payout ratios limit near-term dividend upside, making the stock a Hold at current valuations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$40.06 High · most bullish analyst$45.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A deeper macroeconomic recession or prolonged high interest rates depress Southern California port volumes and business formations, leading to higher tenant defaults and vacancy rates. Same-property cash NOI declines exceed 3%, and the AFFO dividend payout ratio rises to unsustainable levels, forcing a pause in dividend growth and compressing valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario The Southern California industrial market stabilizes as elevated pandemic-era supply is absorbed. Rexford successfully executes its capital recycling program, disposing of lower-yielding assets to fund accretive share repurchases and high-ROIC redevelopments. Same-property occupancy remains stable in the 95% range, and Core FFO meets the raised FY 2026 guidance of $2.37 to $2.42 per share. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |