Revolve Group Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryInternet Retail Beta (adjusted)1.41 Intrinsic Value $23.62median of 6 methods · middle span $11-$27based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.23Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.5B Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 72.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV) is a leading digital-native fashion platform leveraging a proprietary data-driven merchandising model and a highly scalable influencer-driven marketing ecosystem. The company is uniquely positioned to capture market share among Millennial and Gen-Z consumers. Following a strong Q1 2026 performance featuring 16% year-over-year net sales growth (its fastest rate since 2022) and robust free cash flow generation, the business demonstrates operational resilience. Backed by a pristine balance sheet with over $335 million in cash and zero debt, Revolve is well-defended against macroeconomic volatility while retaining the flexibility to invest in high-potential growth initiatives like REVOLVE Los Angeles, physical retail expansion, and its beauty joint venture with Cardi B. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$30.85 High · most bullish analyst$37.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $24.00 Escalating tariffs on apparel imports severely impact gross margins, while persistent inflationary pressures on discretionary spending depress average order values. High marketing investments fail to generate expected customer acquisition, leading to margin compression and slower active customer growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.85 Matches the consensus meanRevolve successfully navigates a promotional retail environment, maintaining its double-digit revenue growth target for FY 2026. Gross margins remain stable within the guided 53.5% to 54.0% range, supported by disciplined inventory management and data-driven pricing, while marketing investments yield steady customer retention. Bull CaseUpside scenario $37.00 Accelerating customer acquisition and successful scaling of owned brands (such as REVOLVE Los Angeles) drive gross margins above 54%. International expansion outpaces expectations, and the Cardi B beauty joint venture scales rapidly, leading to sustained double-digit top-line growth and significant operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |