Revolution Medicines Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Revolution Medicines Inc

RVMDNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.27

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $205.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $44.1B

Enterprise Value $43.3B

Shares Outstanding 206.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

RASONQUE's August 2026 U.S. approval moved Revolution Medicines from a late-stage developer to a commercial-stage oncology company and substantially reduced lead-asset regulatory risk. The pivotal RASolute 302 results showed median overall survival of 13.2 months versus 6.7 months for chemotherapy and median progression-free survival of 7.2 versus 3.6 months. The broad metastatic-pancreatic-cancer label, immediate U.S. availability, and absence of a companion-diagnostic requirement create a credible adoption opportunity, while the expanding Phase 3 pipeline and BeOne collaboration provide additional optionality. A Hold recommendation reflects the balance between this major clinical and regulatory validation and still-unproven launch uptake, reimbursement, persistence, real-world safety, and pipeline durability.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$151.00

Mean target$221.90

High · most bullish analyst$291.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$151.0019%

Commercial uptake is slower than expected because of payer friction, physician caution, toxicity-management burdens, or weak treatment persistence. Real-world adverse-event rates exceed clinical-program experience, and one or more Phase 3 programs experience enrollment delays or fail to confirm preliminary efficacy.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$221.9056%

Matches the consensus mean

RASONQUE establishes a meaningful U.S. commercial franchise, but adoption builds over several quarters as reimbursement, distribution, treatment protocols, and adverse-event management mature. The approved product validates the RAS(ON) platform, while the broader pipeline advances broadly on schedule but early combination response rates moderate with follow-up.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$291.0025%

RASONQUE gains rapid U.S. adoption because its broad label, oral administration, survival benefit, and lack of a companion-diagnostic requirement simplify physician use. Payer access and patient persistence are favorable, post-launch safety remains consistent with the registrational program, RASolve 301 stays on schedule, and the zoldonrasib and elironrasib combinations retain their encouraging activity with longer follow-up.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

RASONQUE is approved and available in the United States for adults with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma after at least one prior systemic therapy or when multiagent systemic therapy is unsuitable; the label does not require an identified RAS mutation or companion diagnostic.
RASolute 302 demonstrated a 60% reduction in the risk of death versus chemotherapy in the intent-to-treat population, with median overall survival of 13.2 versus 6.7 months and median progression-free survival of 7.2 versus 3.6 months.
Platform optionality extends beyond the approved indication through multiple Phase 3 pancreatic- and lung-cancer programs and a BeOne collaboration covering four clinical RAS(ON) inhibitors, combination studies, regional commercialization, and funding of one global registrational study.

Key Investment Risks

The first commercial launch introduces uncertainty around physician adoption, payer coverage, reimbursement, distribution, patient starts, treatment persistence, and supply execution.
RASONQUE has clinically important toxicity-management requirements; the registrational safety information reported Grade 3 dermatologic toxicity in 10% of treated patients and identified gastrointestinal perforation and interstitial lung disease or pneumonitis among warnings and precautions.
Several pipeline value drivers remain dependent on preliminary response data, successful Phase 3 execution, timely enrollment, durability of benefit, and future regulatory approvals.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.