Remitly Global Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $89.97median of 6 methods · middle span $35-$54based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.48Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 319% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+319%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.5B Enterprise Value $3.9B Shares Outstanding 217.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) represents a compelling growth-to-profitability transition story in the global cross-border payments sector. Under the newly appointed CEO Sebastian Gunningham, the company is successfully scaling its digital-first remittance platform, capturing market share from legacy players, and expanding into high-value adjacent services. Despite near-term headwinds from insider selling and broader software sector volatility, Remitly's strong Q1 2026 financial performance—characterized by 25% YoY revenue growth, a 332% surge in GAAP net income, and robust free cash flow—demonstrates powerful operating leverage and solid execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.00 Mean target$32.22 High · most bullish analyst$36.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $29.00 Intensifying competition from fintech peers (e.g., Wise, PayPal) and legacy players compresses margins. Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoins or changes in immigration policies in key send markets (like the US) slow customer acquisition. Product delays following the departure of the Chief Product and Technology Officer lead to top-line deceleration. Base CaseCentral scenario $32.22 Matches the consensus meanRemitly continues to capture market share in core corridors (Mexico, India, Philippines) and successfully expands its footprint in new regions. Revenue grows in line with FY 2026 guidance of 20% to 21% ($1.960B to $1.975B), and Adjusted EBITDA reaches the guided range of $370M to $385M. Growth accelerators scale to ~5% of total revenue, supporting a steady upward re-rating. Bull CaseUpside scenario $36.00 Accelerated adoption of digital-first remittances and rapid scaling of growth accelerators (such as Remitly Business, Flex, and multicurrency wallets) drive revenue growth above 25% annually. AI-driven operational efficiencies and optimized FX routing lead to significant margin expansion, pushing Adjusted EBITDA margins past 20% and driving substantial GAAP net income growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |