Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

RELX entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: first-half underlying revenue grew 7%, underlying adjusted operating profit grew 9%, adjusted operating margin reached 35.5%, and constant-currency adjusted EPS grew 11%. Management reaffirmed its full-year outlook, supported by the continuing mix shift toward higher-growth analytics and AI-enabled decision tools.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$49.10
Mean target$53.05
High · most bullish analyst$57.00
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$49.1020%

The downside scenario is a loss of operating leverage or weaker adoption and renewal momentum for higher-value analytics products. Regulatory restrictions on data use, intellectual-property changes, research-integrity issues, cybersecurity incidents, macroeconomic weakness, or disruption to exhibitions could cause results to fall below the first-half growth profile.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$53.0555%
Matches the consensus mean

The modal scenario assumes RELX broadly delivers its reaffirmed 2026 outlook: strong underlying revenue and adjusted operating profit growth, with operating profit continuing to grow faster than revenue.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$57.0025%

Sustained adoption of AI-enabled analytics and decision tools, continued strong new sales, and cost growth below revenue growth could preserve or improve on the first-half combination of 7% underlying revenue growth and 9% underlying adjusted operating profit growth. Further acceleration in Legal and Scientific, Technical & Medical would strengthen this outcome.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • RELX demonstrated operating leverage in the first half of 2026: underlying revenue grew 7%, underlying adjusted operating profit grew 9%, and adjusted operating margin improved to 35.5% from 34.8%.
  • Management identifies the shift toward higher-growth analytics and AI-enabled decision tools as the driver of RELX's improving long-term growth trajectory, with strong momentum reported across all four business areas.
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Key Investment Risks
  • RELX identifies material exposure to regulation of personal-data collection and use, intellectual-property changes, cybersecurity compromise, system interruption, research-integrity issues, and changing scientific-publishing payment models.
  • First-half net debt to EBITDA increased to 2.3 times from 2.2 times, reducing financial headroom if operating growth or cash conversion weakens.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.