Reliance Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Reliance Inc

RSNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustrySteel

Beta (adjusted)0.98

Intrinsic Value $348.44median of 6 methods · middle span $274-$412based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $393.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $20.1B

Enterprise Value $21.5B

Shares Outstanding 51.5M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Reliance entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 produced record tons sold, broad year-over-year demand improvement and non-GAAP EPS above guidance. The multi-year U.S. border-wall contract added meaningful volume and earnings, while management guided to further year-over-year growth in Q3. However, near-term results are increasingly sensitive to project execution, metals-price movements, LIFO expense, trade policy and supply availability.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$398.00

Mean target$409.50

High · most bullish analyst$425.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$398.0020%

Border-wall shipments or their expected earnings contribution fall short, supply constraints restrict non-residential construction volume, or weaker metals pricing reverses operating leverage. Tariff and geopolitical uncertainty, higher product costs and working-capital demands compound the downside if underlying shipment growth also slows.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$409.5056%

Matches the consensus mean

Reliance delivers within its Q3 operating ranges: tons sold grow 9%-11% year over year including the border-wall project, average selling price is flat to 2% higher sequentially and non-GAAP diluted EPS reaches $6.40-$6.60. End-market conditions remain healthy but normal seasonality, LIFO expense and policy uncertainty limit further near-term operating acceleration.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$425.0024%

Demand remains constructive across infrastructure, data centers, semiconductor, manufacturing and aerospace markets; border-wall shipments meet or exceed management's assumptions; selling prices remain firm; and Reliance continues outperforming industry shipment growth through scale, processing capability and material availability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 tons sold reached a record 1.7901 million and increased 10.8% year over year, outperforming the industry shipment increase reported by management.
The U.S. border-wall project contributed $0.41 of Q2 EPS versus management's prior expectation of $0.15-$0.20, and management projected approximately $0.60 for Q3.
Demand improved across major end markets, with management expecting continued strength or improvement in infrastructure, manufacturing, aerospace, defense, automotive toll processing and semiconductor applications.

Key Investment Risks

Management identifies metals pricing, tariffs and other trade policies, macroeconomic weakness, supply disruption and geopolitical conflict as factors that could materially affect demand and results.
The border-wall project accounted for a meaningful portion of Q2 shipment growth and expected Q3 earnings, increasing sensitivity to government-contract execution and timing.
Higher metals prices increased LIFO expense, while stronger shipment volume and pricing required additional working capital, reducing Q2 free-cash-flow conversion despite higher earnings.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.