Regis Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustrySpecialized Consumer Services Beta (adjusted)1.23 Intrinsic Value $28.01median of 5 methods · middle span $23-$45based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $29.43Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $73.6M Enterprise Value $164.7M Shares Outstanding 2.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Nov 2013 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Regis Corp is demonstrating clear signs of a positive operational turnaround, driven by the strategic acquisition of Alline Salon Group and disciplined cost management. The company has achieved consecutive quarters of positive cash from operations and significant improvements in operating income and adjusted EBITDA. While the company carries a high-interest debt burden, active efforts to evaluate refinancing alternatives present a major catalyst for unlocking shareholder value. Trading at attractive valuation multiples relative to its historical averages and intrinsic value, Regis Corp offers a compelling risk-reward profile for value-oriented investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$42.00 Mean target$42.00 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $19.1820% Inability to refinance the credit agreement on favorable terms, leading to prolonged high interest expenses, coupled with accelerated franchise salon closures and weaker consumer spending that dampens same-store sales growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $42.0050% Matches the consensus meanContinued steady operational execution with positive same-store sales growth, gradual stabilization of the franchise footprint, and a successful refinancing of the debt facility by June 2029, aligning with consensus analyst expectations. Bull CaseUpside scenario $42.0030% Successful refinancing of the existing credit agreement at significantly lower interest rates, combined with accelerated same-store sales growth from the Supercuts brand transformation and stabilization of the franchise salon portfolio, driving substantial expansion in net margins and free cash flow. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |