Regions Financial Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Regions Financial Corp

RFNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value $20.41median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $26.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $23B

Enterprise Value $17.7B

Shares Outstanding 853M diluted

Next Earnings Date16 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Regions entered the second half of 2026 with improving credit metrics, strong regulatory capital and liquidity, broad-based commercial loan growth, record wealth-management income, and a higher common dividend. These strengths are substantially reflected in the latest issuer-reported price of $30.33, which was close to the issuer-reported 52-week high of $32.47. The balanced risk-reward supports a Hold rather than an aggressive accumulation recommendation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$28.00

Mean target$32.93

High · most bullish analyst$36.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$28.0024%

A reversal in credit trends, weaker net interest margin, or expense growth that pushes adjusted efficiency above the monitoring threshold could return the shares toward the issuer-reported 52-week low.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$32.9357%

Matches the consensus mean

Credit and capital remain sound, but margin expansion is limited and the share price already reflects much of the operating improvement.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$36.0019%

Sustained high-quality commercial loan growth, stable margin performance, further credit normalization, and continued strength in wealth-management fees could support a retest of the issuer-reported 52-week high.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter average loans grew 2.4% sequentially, led by broad-based commercial lending, while more than half of new balances were investment-grade credits.
Credit and balance-sheet resilience were strong: annualized net charge-offs were 0.42%, non-performing loans were 0.67% of loans, CET1 was 10.7%, and available liquidity covered approximately 181% of uninsured deposits.
Adjusted return on average tangible common equity reached 20.18%, wealth-management income set another record, and the quarterly common dividend increased 13% to $0.30 per share.

Key Investment Risks

The latest issuer-reported price of $30.33 was already near the $32.47 52-week high, limiting upside under a neutral operating scenario.
Net interest margin edged down to 3.66% from 3.67%, while adjusted non-interest expense increased 4% sequentially and the adjusted efficiency ratio rose to 56.9%.
Investor-real-estate balances grew 9.6% year over year, including bridge-financing activity in multifamily properties amid elevated long-term interest rates.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.