Regency Centers Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Regency Centers Corp

REGNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Retail

Beta (adjusted)0.86

Intrinsic Value $63.66median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $71.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $13.4B

Enterprise Value $18.3B

Shares Outstanding 183.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Regency's operating evidence is constructive: second-quarter Same Property NOI increased 3.8%, leased occupancy reached 96.9%, commenced occupancy reached 94.5%, and comparable leases generated a 10.4% blended cash rent spread. Management consequently raised full-year Same Property NOI growth guidance to 3.7%-4.1%.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$82.00

Mean target$86.61

High · most bullish analyst$102.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$82.0015%

Full-year Same Property NOI growth falls below the 3.7% guidance floor as lease commencements slow, occupancy weakens, or cash rent spreads decline materially from the second-quarter level.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$86.6158%

Matches the consensus mean

Regency delivers 2026 Same Property NOI growth within its 3.7%-4.1% guidance range, maintains high leased occupancy, and progressively commences signed leases.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$102.0027%

Regency exceeds the 4.1% upper end of its 2026 Same Property NOI growth guidance as the gap between 96.9% leased and 94.5% commenced occupancy converts into rent, while positive cash rent spreads remain near or above the second-quarter level.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 Same Property NOI increased 3.8% year over year, and management raised full-year growth guidance to 3.7%-4.1%.
Same Property leased occupancy reached 96.9%, while commenced occupancy was 94.5%, providing a visible pipeline of signed space not yet contributing rent.
Comparable new and renewal leases covering approximately 2.1 million square feet produced a 10.4% blended cash rent spread and a 19.5% straight-line spread.

Key Investment Risks

Failure to deliver at least the 3.7% lower bound of 2026 Same Property NOI growth guidance would undermine the current operating thesis.
The leased-to-commenced occupancy gap creates timing and tenant-opening risk if signed tenants delay or fail to commence operations.
A sustained decline from the reported 10.4% quarterly blended cash rent spread would indicate weakening pricing power.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.