Regal Rexnord Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)1.06 Intrinsic Value $154.31median of 6 methods · middle span $143-$204based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $156.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.4B Enterprise Value $14.6B Shares Outstanding 66.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Regal Rexnord's second-quarter evidence supports a constructive but execution-sensitive thesis. Enterprise daily orders increased 8.8% and organic sales rose 3.3%, while Automation & Motion Control delivered 15.6% organic growth. Adjusted diluted EPS increased to $2.99, and management retained the $10.60 midpoint of its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook. The opportunity rests on converting strong orders in automation, data-center, aerospace and defense applications into durable growth while reducing leverage below 3.0x. The principal offsets are persistent weakness in residential HVAC and pool markets, slower productivity realization, inflation running ahead of price realization, unfavorable mix, substantial debt, and the temporary contribution from tariff refunds. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$220.00 Mean target$249.00 High · most bullish analyst$275.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $220.0021% Order growth fails to convert into expected revenue, Power Efficiency Solutions weakness persists, inflation continues to outrun pricing, and delayed productivity gains pressure profitability. Guidance is reduced and leverage remains at or above 3.0x, limiting financial flexibility and producing a material valuation contraction. Base CaseCentral scenario $249.0055% Matches the consensus meanPositive order momentum supports continued organic growth, but segment performance remains uneven as Automation & Motion Control strength offsets weakness in residential HVAC and pool applications. Adjusted EPS remains near management's $10.60 outlook midpoint and leverage moves below 3.0x. Bull CaseUpside scenario $275.0024% Orders convert strongly into sales, Automation & Motion Control sustains broad-based double-digit growth, productivity improves, and leverage falls comfortably below 3.0x. The company reaches the upper portion of its 2026 adjusted EPS range and demonstrates that automation, data-center, aerospace and defense demand can support durable growth beyond the current cycle. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |