Redhill Biopharma Ltd ADR Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)3.64 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $0.48Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $2.9M Enterprise Value $262.8K Shares Outstanding 6.1M diluted All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary RedHill Biopharma Ltd. presents a complex investment profile characterized by high pipeline optionality offset by severe financial constraints and structural risks. The company successfully transitioned its flagship product, Talicia, into a 70%-owned joint venture (Talicia Holdings Inc.) with Cumberland Pharmaceuticals, which has helped restructure commercial operations and improve positive equity to $4.3 million at the end of 2025. Additionally, the FDA's Rare Pediatric Disease designation for opaganib in neuroblastoma provides a potential Priority Review Voucher angle. However, the company faces substantial going concern doubts, a tight cash runway of $4.1 million as of late 2025, ongoing Nasdaq delisting pressure (with a compliance deadline of October 5, 2026), and persistent dilution risks from private placements. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case materializes if RedHill fails to regain Nasdaq compliance by October 5, 2026, leading to delisting to the OTC markets. Inability to collect on the Kukbo judgment, combined with slow Talicia market penetration and failure to secure non-dilutive licensing deals, would force highly dilutive equity placements under its Alumni Capital or standby equity agreements, severely depressing share value. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes RedHill successfully maintains its Nasdaq listing, potentially through a reverse stock split if organic compliance is not met by October 2026. Commercial revenues from the Cumberland co-promotion of Talicia stabilize, and the company successfully collects a portion of its $10.9 million Korean judgment against Kukbo. Pipeline candidates like opaganib and RHB-102 progress slowly through partnerships, but ongoing operational expenses require further dilutive capital raises. Bull CaseUpside scenario RedHill's bull case centers on the commercial expansion of its FDA-approved H. pylori treatment, Talicia, supported by a strategic co-commercialization partnership with Cumberland Pharmaceuticals (which holds a 30% stake in the Talicia business). Additionally, the company is advancing a mid-to-late-stage pipeline, including opaganib, which recently received an FDA Rare Pediatric Disease Designation for neuroblastoma, and RHB-102, which is being developed for GLP-1 agonist-associated gastrointestinal side effects. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |