Reddit Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Reddit Inc

RDDTNYSE

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryInteractive Media and Services

Beta (adjusted)1.68

Intrinsic Value $270.20median of 6 methods · middle span $215-$983based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $149.53Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 81% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+81%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $28.8B

Shares Outstanding 203.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Reddit entered the second half of 2026 with strong audience momentum: second-quarter global DAUq rose 18% year over year to 130.3 million and WAUq rose 24% to 514.6 million. International and logged-out usage grew substantially faster than U.S. and logged-in usage, supporting continued reach expansion but creating questions about traffic quality, user conversion, and domestic maturity. A Hold stance is appropriate because the operating evidence is favorable.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets32 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$120.00

Mean target$215.31

High · most bullish analyst$300.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$120.0022%

Global audience growth decelerates materially and the mix remains disproportionately driven by logged-out visitors. Stagnation in logged-in or U.S. usage would weaken evidence that Reddit can convert broad discovery traffic into durable, high-quality engagement.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$215.3157%

Matches the consensus mean

Reddit sustains healthy global and international audience expansion, but logged-in and U.S. growth continue to trail the broader platform. Operating momentum remains constructive, while slower growth in the most established and identifiable user cohorts limits conviction.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$300.0021%

Global and international audience growth remains strong while product improvements accelerate logged-in and U.S. user growth. A better balance between logged-in and logged-out growth would strengthen retention, personalization, and monetization quality.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Global DAUq reached 130.3 million in the second quarter of 2026, increasing 18% year over year.
Global WAUq reached 514.6 million, increasing 24% year over year and exceeding half a billion.
International DAUq increased 28% year over year to 77.1 million, demonstrating substantial expansion outside the United States.

Key Investment Risks

U.S. DAUq increased only 6% year over year, materially slower than the 28% increase in international DAUq.
Global logged-in DAUq increased 7% year over year versus 18% growth in total global DAUq, indicating that identifiable-user growth lagged total reach.
Logged-out global DAUq was 77.7 million versus 52.6 million logged-in DAUq, leaving the audience mix weighted toward visitors who may offer less durable engagement and personalization.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.