Red Rock Resorts Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResorts & Casinos Beta (adjusted)1.22 Intrinsic Value $53.60median of 6 methods · middle span $46-$68based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $48.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5B Enterprise Value $8.4B Shares Outstanding 102M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ: RRR) represents a highly differentiated, premium play on the resilient Las Vegas locals gaming market. Unlike Strip-focused operators, Red Rock benefits from a highly predictable, recurring local customer base, with frequent visitors driving the vast majority of slot revenues. The company maintains industry-leading EBITDA margins consistently above 45% in its Las Vegas operations and exhibits exceptional free cash flow conversion. While near-term infrastructure disruptions near its flagship Durango property present minor headwinds, its strategic land bank and master-planned expansion potential position it for superior long-term growth relative to geographically diversified peers. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$61.00 Mean target$73.41 High · most bullish analyst$78.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $61.00 A broader macroeconomic slowdown or persistent inflation severely impacts Las Vegas consumer discretionary spending, leading to a contraction in local slot volumes. Prolonged roadwork near Durango permanently detours traffic, and rising promotional competition from regional peers compresses EBITDA margins below 40%. Base CaseCentral scenario $73.41 Matches the consensus meanRed Rock maintains its stable locals market share, with Durango continuing its steady ramp-up despite temporary roadwork disruptions. Las Vegas operations sustain EBITDA margins above 45%, and the company continues to convert approximately 50-55% of EBITDA to operating free cash flow. Capital allocation remains balanced between steady quarterly dividends ($0.26/share) and opportunistic share repurchases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $78.00 Durango Casino & Resort ramps up faster than expected, capturing dominant market share in the high-growth Southwest Las Vegas valley. Infrastructure disruptions resolve ahead of schedule, and local population growth accelerates, driving Las Vegas operations EBITDA margins toward 48%. Strong cash generation enables accelerated debt paydown and special dividends. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |