Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)1.95 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $7.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $141.6M Enterprise Value $282.1M Shares Outstanding 17.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Red Robin Gourmet Burgers is undergoing a pivotal operational and financial transformation driven by its 'First Choice' strategic plan. The company's aggressive refranchising strategy—selling 116 corporate-owned locations for approximately $96.0 million—will significantly deleverage its highly strained balance sheet. Operationally, the success of the 'Big Yummm' value platform and kitchen efficiency initiatives has driven restaurant-level operating margins to a five-year Q1 high of 14.8%. While macro headwinds and negative guest traffic persist, the combination of debt reduction, margin expansion, and a shift toward a higher-margin franchise model presents a compelling turnaround opportunity with substantial valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.00 Mean target$10.13 High · most bullish analyst$14.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Macroeconomic pressures and declining consumer spending lead to deeper traffic contraction, offsetting the benefits of the 'Big Yummm' value platform. Refranchising transactions face regulatory or execution delays, leaving the company with a heavy debt burden and constrained liquidity. Restaurant-level margins fall below the 13.0% target due to persistent labor and food cost inflation. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully closes its announced refranchising agreements in the second half of 2026, utilizing the $96.0 million in proceeds to pay down its $175.7 million credit facility. Restaurant-level operating margins stabilize around the targeted 13.0% for the full year, and comparable restaurant revenue achieves the guided 0.5% to 1.5% growth. Valuation multiples expand as the balance sheet risk is mitigated. Bull CaseUpside scenario Successful execution of the 'First Choice' strategic plan, driven by the Big Yummm value platform and tactical refranchising of 116 units for $96 million, significantly deleverages the balance sheet and restores positive guest traffic and sustainable profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |