Red River Bancshares Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Red River Bancshares Inc

RRBINASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.61

Intrinsic Value $61.49median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $101.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 39% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $667.8M

Enterprise Value $473.8M

Shares Outstanding 6.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend8 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Red River Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRBI) represents a highly stable, well-capitalized regional banking franchise with a dominant footprint in Louisiana and strategic organic expansion into Texas. The bank's conservative credit culture is highlighted by exceptionally low nonperforming assets (0.13% of assets) and a robust net interest margin (3.51% FTE) that has held steady despite industry-wide deposit competition. With a strong capital position (18.51% total risk-based capital ratio), a newly raised dividend (up 66.7% to $0.25 per quarter), and an active $10 million share repurchase program for 2026, RRBI offers an attractive risk-reward profile for value-oriented investors seeking defensive financial exposure.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$101.00

Mean target$103.00

High · most bullish analyst$105.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$75.0015%

The bear case is triggered by a localized economic downturn in Louisiana, which disproportionately impacts the bank's geographically concentrated loan portfolio. Increased competition for deposits forces the bank to raise deposit rates, compressing the net interest margin below 3.30%. Additionally, a sharp rise in nonperforming assets in the commercial real estate or construction sectors requires higher provisioning, dampening profitability and halting share repurchases.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$94.0060%

The base case assumes stable operational execution with low-single-digit loan and deposit growth. Net interest margin remains steady around 3.51% as deposit costs stabilize. The bank maintains its strong efficiency ratio (around 52%-54%) and conservative credit profile, with nonperforming assets remaining well below peer averages. Dividend payments continue at the newly raised rate of $0.25 per quarter, supported by steady earnings.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$101.0025%

The bull case is driven by accelerated organic loan growth in high-growth Texas metro areas (such as Houston) and continued market share gains in Louisiana. Stable or declining deposit costs, combined with higher yields on new and renewed loans (averaging 6.71%), lead to net interest margin expansion above 3.65%. Asset quality remains pristine, allowing for minimal provision expenses, while the $10 million buyback program is fully executed, driving double-digit EPS growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong profitability metrics, including a record Q1 2026 net income of $12.0 million, an ROA of 1.44%, and an ROE of 12.95%.
Excellent asset quality with nonperforming assets representing only 0.13% of total assets and a high bad-loan coverage ratio.
Robust capital return profile, highlighted by a 66.7% dividend increase to $0.25 per share and an active $10.0 million share repurchase program for 2026.
Stable net interest margin (3.51% FTE) supported by disciplined deposit pricing and solid yields on new loan originations.

Key Investment Risks

High geographical concentration in Louisiana, making the bank vulnerable to local economic downturns and environmental risks (e.g., hurricanes).
Intense competition for core deposits from larger national banks and digital-first fintechs, which could pressure deposit costs and compress margins.
Potential compression of lending yields if loan demand softens or if interest rates decline faster than deposit costs can be adjusted.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant deterioration in asset quality, marked by the NPA to Total Assets ratio rising above 0.30%.
Net Interest Margin (FTE) falling below 3.25% due to aggressive deposit beta increases.
A material decline in capital ratios, with the total risk-based capital ratio dropping below 15.0%.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.