Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc

RXRXNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.04

Intrinsic Value $7.93median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $4.07Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 95% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+95%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $2.2B

Enterprise Value $1.6B

Shares Outstanding 568.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a leading TechBio company utilizing its proprietary Recursion OS and BioHive-2 supercomputer to industrialize drug discovery. While the company has successfully built a massive biological-chemical dataset and secured high-profile partnerships with Roche, Genentech, and Sanofi, it remains a pre-commercial, high-cash-burn entity. Recent Q1 2026 results demonstrated strong cost discipline, with cash operating expenses down 30% year-over-year and a solid cash runway extending into early 2028. However, a significant revenue miss in Q1 2026 highlights the volatility of milestone-dependent models. Near-term valuation is heavily tied to binary clinical trial outcomes and regulatory alignments (such as REC-4881 FDA engagement in 2H 2026). Given the balanced risk-reward profile, a Hold recommendation is warranted until clinical proof-of-concept is firmly established across its lead assets.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$4.00

Mean target$7.22

High · most bullish analyst$10.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

FDA engagement for REC-4881 results in stringent requirements or delayed timelines, and dose-limiting toxicities (such as hematologic or thrombocytopenic issues) emerge in the REC-1245 or REC-4539 trials. Partners delay opt-in decisions, forcing Recursion to rely on its at-the-market (ATM) facility for dilutive capital raises as the 2028 runway shortens.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully aligns with the FDA on a registrational study design for REC-4881 in FAP in 2H 2026, and continues to deliver on its partnership milestones with Sanofi and Roche. Cash burn remains disciplined under the $390 million annual guidance, preserving the runway into 2028 without dilutive financing. Valuation is supported by steady pipeline progression and platform validation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Robust balance sheet with $665.2 million in cash and equivalents as of Q1 2026, providing a clear operational runway into early 2028.
Strong cost discipline demonstrated by a 30% year-over-year reduction in cash operating expenses in Q1 2026.
High-value strategic partnerships with Roche, Genentech, and Sanofi, offering up to $20 billion in potential future milestone payments.
Industrialized, AI-native drug discovery platform (Recursion OS) powered by the BioHive-2 supercomputer, compressing early-stage discovery timelines.

Key Investment Risks

High operational cash burn rate (guided at less than $390 million for FY 2026) typical of pre-commercial biotechnology companies.
Significant revenue volatility and near-term dependence on lumpy, milestone-based collaboration payments.
Binary clinical development and regulatory risks across lead assets (REC-4881, REC-1245, REC-4539).
Intense competition in the AI-driven drug discovery space from both TechBio peers and established biopharma players.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to reach alignment with the FDA on a registrational study design for REC-4881 in 2H 2026.
Emergence of severe dose-limiting toxicities in the REC-1245 or REC-4539 clinical trials.
Termination or material down-scoping of key collaboration agreements with Roche, Genentech, or Sanofi.
Operational cash burn significantly exceeding the guided $390 million threshold for FY 2026, accelerating dilution risk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.