Realty Income Dossier - Source-backed chat

Realty Income

ONYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryDiversified REITs

Beta (adjusted)0.80

Intrinsic Value $53.58median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $53.53Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $50.7B

Shares Outstanding 944.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Realty Income combines durable portfolio occupancy, positive re-leasing economics, investment-grade access to capital and an exceptional monthly-dividend record. Second-quarter 2026 diluted AFFO per share rose 3.8% to $1.09, management raised full-year guidance to $4.44-$4.45, occupancy was 98.8%, and re-leasing rent recapture was 102.7%. The offset is a capital-intensive growth model: net debt was 5.4 times annualized pro forma Adjusted EBITDAre, the revised $10.0 billion investment plan depends on continued access to debt, equity and private capital, and same-store rental-revenue growth remained modest. These factors support a Hold rather than a more aggressive rating pending evidence that expanded investment channels produce sustained per-share growth without materially higher leverage or dilution.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$61.50

Mean target$68.21

High · most bullish analyst$72.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$61.5020%

The bear case assumes weaker tenant credit or re-leasing results push occupancy below 98%, financing costs compress investment spreads, investment deployment misses guidance, and leverage rises above 6.0 times. A reduction in AFFO guidance or greater dependence on equity issuance would weaken per-share growth and could cause income-oriented investors to demand a materially higher yield.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$68.2155%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes 2026 AFFO per share lands within management's $4.44-$4.45 guidance, occupancy remains around the approximately 98.5% outlook, same-store rent growth stays within the 1.1%-1.3% range, and leverage remains manageable near its current level. Dividend growth continues, but modest organic growth and recurring capital needs constrain multiple expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$72.0025%

The bull case assumes deployment meets or exceeds the revised $10.0 billion plan while acquisition spreads remain attractive, occupancy stays near 99%, rent recapture remains above 100%, and private-capital partnerships broaden fee and investment opportunities without proportionate balance-sheet growth. Continued AFFO-per-share growth and stable investment-grade funding access could support a valuation rerating. The $72 price target is an internally developed scenario estimate.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 diluted AFFO per share increased 3.8% year over year to $1.09, and management raised full-year guidance to $4.44-$4.45.
Portfolio occupancy was 98.8% at June 30, 2026, with a 102.7% rent-recapture rate on re-leased properties.
Realty Income declared its 674th consecutive monthly dividend in August 2026; the $0.2710 monthly rate equates to $3.252 annually, and the company reported more than 31 consecutive years of dividend increases.

Key Investment Risks

Net debt was 5.4 times annualized pro forma Adjusted EBITDAre, leaving earnings and valuation sensitive to debt-market conditions and refinancing costs.
The capital-intensive growth plan relies on recurring access to external capital; approximately $1.3 billion of expected proceeds from unsettled ATM forward equity remained as of August 5, 2026.
Second-quarter same-store rental-revenue growth was only 1.2%, limiting the organic-growth cushion if acquisition activity or capital-market access weakens.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.