RB Global Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

RB Global Inc

RBANYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Business Services

Beta (adjusted)0.70

Intrinsic Value $95.99median of 6 methods · middle span $70-$124based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $81.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $15.1B

Enterprise Value $17.5B

Shares Outstanding 187.6M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend25 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

RB Global entered the second half of 2026 with strong marketplace activity: second-quarter GTV and revenue each grew 11%, and management raised full-year GTV growth guidance to 9%-11%. Automotive volume and market-share gains, together with BigIron's expansion of the agriculture franchise, support durable growth. The offset is weaker monetization, with the service revenue take rate falling 110 basis points to 20.0%, while acquisition execution and leverage require monitoring.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$104.00

Mean target$128.91

High · most bullish analyst$152.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$104.0020%

GTV growth falls below guidance as cautious heavy-equipment customers and weaker transaction economics outweigh automotive growth, while additional acquisition costs or leverage constrain value creation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$128.9158%

Matches the consensus mean

RB Global delivers within its 9%-11% GTV growth and USD 1,495-1,545 million adjusted EBITDA outlook, with automotive strength and acquired growth offsetting continued pressure on the service revenue take rate.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$152.0022%

Marketplace share gains continue, automotive volumes remain strong, BigIron broadens customer reach in U.S. agriculture, and GTV and adjusted EBITDA finish above the upper ends of management's 2026 outlook.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 GTV increased 11% to USD 4.7 billion, including 7% growth excluding recent acquisitions, and management raised full-year GTV growth guidance to 9%-11%.
Automotive GTV increased 13% and automotive unit volumes increased 11%, supported by net market-share gains and higher average vehicle prices.
The completed BigIron acquisition expands RB Global's presence, expertise and customer relationships in the U.S. agriculture and agricultural-real-estate markets.

Key Investment Risks

The service revenue take rate declined 110 basis points to 20.0% because of acquisition and portfolio mix and automotive pricing incentives.
Heavy Equipment & Transportation transaction volumes were pressured by a more cautious customer environment, while acquisitions contributed to reported sector growth.
Adjusted net debt was USD 2.3792 billion and adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.6 times at June 30, 2026, increasing the importance of acquisition integration and deleveraging discipline.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.