Raymond James Financial Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Raymond James Financial Inc

RJFNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryInvestment Banking & Brokerage

Beta (adjusted)0.94

Intrinsic Value $217.30median of 6 methods · middle span $154-$464based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $159.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 36% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $30.7B

Shares Outstanding 198.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Raymond James enters the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with record client assets, positive organic asset gathering and substantial fee-based assets, while the completed Clark Capital acquisition broadens its wealth-focused investment capabilities. These strengths support a constructive operating outlook, but client assets and associated fees remain exposed to market levels, and banking, interest-rate, credit, regulatory and acquisition-integration risks remain relevant.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$161.00

Mean target$185.92

High · most bullish analyst$205.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$161.0018%

A market decline reduces client and fee-based assets while organic flows weaken, advisor recruiting or retention deteriorates, and banking or integration pressures rise. The combination would reduce the operating leverage available from the firm's large wealth-management platform.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$185.9258%

Matches the consensus mean

Organic asset gathering remains positive but fluctuates around the mid-single-digit annualized rate reported for the June quarter. Client assets remain broadly supported by net inflows, while Clark Capital is integrated without material disruption.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$205.0024%

Sustained advisor recruiting and retention keep domestic Private Client Group net-new-asset growth above its recent 5.5% annualized pace, favorable markets lift client and fee-based assets, and Raymond James successfully distributes Clark Capital strategies across its advisor network. This would increase the scale and breadth of recurring, wealth-related activity.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Total client assets reached a record $1.92 trillion as of June 30, 2026, demonstrating substantial platform scale.
Domestic Private Client Group net new assets were $21.7 billion in the fiscal third quarter, equal to 5.5% annualized growth from beginning-of-quarter assets.
The completed Clark Capital acquisition added another independent investment boutique and expanded Raymond James Investment Management's wealth-focused solutions.

Key Investment Risks

Client and fee-based asset levels are sensitive to equity-market performance, creating corresponding variability in asset-based activity.
Results remain exposed to interest-rate conditions, client cash-allocation decisions, banking credit performance, regulation and litigation.
The expected benefits of Clark Capital depend on successful integration, preservation of investment talent and service quality, and effective use of Raymond James distribution.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.