Rambus Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.60 Intrinsic Value $89.49median of 6 methods · middle span $73-$137based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $107.29Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.6B Enterprise Value $11.5B Shares Outstanding 110.3M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Rambus entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 revenue reached a record $207.4 million, product revenue reached a record $99.2 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS reached $0.77. Management guided Q3 revenue to $210 million-$216 million and product revenue to $110 million-$116 million, indicating further sequential expansion. The company also held $824.9 million of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at June 30, 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$100.00 Mean target$147.50 High · most bullish analyst$180.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $100.0017% Revenue or product revenue falls below the lower end of Q3 guidance, indicating slower customer ramps, licensing timing pressure, or weaker demand. A concurrent non-GAAP EPS result below $0.75 would increase concern that operating-cost growth is outpacing revenue conversion. Base CaseCentral scenario $147.5058% Matches the consensus meanQ3 revenue and product revenue remain within the respective $210 million-$216 million and $110 million-$116 million guidance ranges, while earnings remain broadly consistent with management's $0.75-$0.82 non-GAAP diluted-EPS outlook. Bull CaseUpside scenario $180.0025% Revenue exceeds the $216 million upper end of Q3 guidance, product revenue exceeds $116 million, and demand for DDR5 9600 chipsets and PCIe 7 IP supports continued growth. This would reinforce the view that AI and data-center memory bottlenecks are producing durable demand for Rambus products and IP. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |