Ramaco Resources Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySteel Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $8.33Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $530.5M Enterprise Value $248M Shares Outstanding 63.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 May 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ramaco Resources represents a compelling dual-track investment opportunity. In the near term, it is a structurally low-cost, pure-play metallurgical coal producer in Central Appalachia with a long reserve life and a track record of continuous production growth. In the long term, its strategic pivot toward developing rare earth elements (REE) and critical minerals at its Brook Mine in Wyoming provides asymmetric high-tech growth optionality. Despite near-term headwinds from soft global steel demand and depressed high-vol coal pricing, Ramaco's robust liquidity of nearly $490 million and first-quartile cost curve position protect its downside, while its low forward valuation multiples offer significant upside potential. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$13.00 Mean target$26.13 High · most bullish analyst$50.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $15.0015% A prolonged global economic slowdown further depresses steel demand, keeping metallurgical coal indices at unsustainable levels below $100 per ton. Elevated diesel and operating costs squeeze cash margins to near-zero, forcing production cuts. Meanwhile, technical or regulatory hurdles delay the development of the Brook Mine REE project, causing investors to discount its critical minerals potential. Base CaseCentral scenario $22.0060% Metallurgical coal prices stabilize in the second half of 2026 as high-cost domestic supply contracts. Ramaco achieves its 2026 production guidance of 3.7–4.1 million tons while keeping cash costs disciplined between $95 and $100 per ton. The Brook Mine project continues to hit exploratory and pilot milestones, maintaining investor interest in its critical minerals optionality. Bull CaseUpside scenario $29.8825% A rapid recovery in global steel production, driven by Chinese infrastructure stabilization and Indian industrialization, spikes seaborne metallurgical coal prices. Concurrently, Ramaco successfully accelerates the commercialization of its Brook Mine project, securing binding off-take agreements for ex-China permanent magnet supply chains. This dual catalyst drives explosive earnings growth and a major valuation re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |