Ralph Lauren Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Manufacturing Beta (adjusted)1.24 Intrinsic Value $276.49median of 6 methods · middle span $211-$493based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $362.66Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $21.6B Enterprise Value $21.1B Shares Outstanding 61.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ralph Lauren entered fiscal 2027 with broad-based momentum: first-quarter constant-currency revenue increased 13.4%, global direct-to-consumer comparable sales increased 12%, average unit retail increased 15%, and adjusted operating margin in constant currency reached 18.5%. Management consequently raised its fiscal 2027 outlook to 5%-6% constant-currency revenue growth and 60-80 basis points of adjusted operating-margin expansion. A valuation-neutral Hold is therefore more defensible than a price-dependent Buy or Sell. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$250.00 Mean target$446.71 High · most bullish analyst$520.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $250.0018% Tariffs, product-cost inflation, foreign-exchange volatility or weaker discretionary demand erode full-price selling and force greater promotion. Fiscal 2027 constant-currency revenue growth falls below 5% or adjusted operating-margin expansion falls below 60 basis points, weakening confidence in the fiscal 2028 strategic objectives. Base CaseCentral scenario $446.7158% Matches the consensus meanRalph Lauren delivers approximately within its updated fiscal 2027 guidance, with slower growth after the unusually strong first quarter but continued full-price selling, controlled inventory and operating leverage. The company remains on course for the fiscal 2025-to-fiscal 2028 plan of mid-single-digit constant-currency revenue CAGR and approximately 100-150 basis points of operating-margin expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $520.0024% First-quarter momentum proves durable: strength remains broad across regions and channels, elevated full-price demand sustains gross-margin gains, and Asia and high-potential categories continue to outgrow the company. Under this scenario, fiscal 2027 performance exceeds the upper boundaries of the 5%-6% revenue-growth and 60-80-basis-point margin-expansion outlooks while preserving the fiscal 2028 strategic trajectory. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |