Radware Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)0.89 Intrinsic Value $22.31median of 6 methods · middle span $14-$29based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $30.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 44.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Radware is successfully executing its strategic pivot toward a cloud-first, subscription-based cybersecurity model, as evidenced by robust double-digit top-line growth and strong momentum in cloud ARR. The company's expansion into API security (accelerated by the Pynt acquisition) and Agentic AI protection positions it well to capture high-growth segments of the cybersecurity market. However, these positive developments are balanced by near-term headwinds, including foreign exchange pressures from a strong Israeli shekel, rising memory-related component costs, and a premium valuation relative to historical averages. Consequently, a Hold rating is recommended as the market has largely priced in the near-term cloud momentum, making execution on long-term targets the key driver for future upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$27.00 Mean target$30.50 High · most bullish analyst$34.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged gross margin pressure from rising memory component costs and failure to pass on price increases to price-sensitive customers. Additionally, a further strengthening of the Israeli shekel severely impacts profitability, while legacy hardware declines outpace cloud subscription gains, causing total revenue growth to stall. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Radware continues to grow its cloud ARR in the low-20% range, supported by steady adoption of its API protection and DDoS mitigation solutions. The transition of the legacy appliance business to subscription models progresses smoothly, offsetting hardware drags. Operating margins improve gradually as price increases counter component cost inflation, though shekel volatility remains a persistent headwind. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |