Radiant Logistics Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAir Freight & Logistics Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value $6.08median of 6 methods · middle span $6-$6based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $9.01Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $422.5M Enterprise Value $396.9M Shares Outstanding 48.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Radiant Logistics, Inc. (RLGT) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a highly scalable, non-asset-based third-party logistics (3PL) provider. The company's flexible cost structure allows it to maintain consistent profitability and a clean balance sheet with virtually no net debt, even during prolonged freight recessions. With the domestic freight market showing early signs of cyclical recovery and capacity rationalization, Radiant is well-positioned to capture significant operating leverage. Furthermore, its ongoing digital transformation—anchored by the Navegate platform and the rollout of its first proprietary AI agent, 'Ray'—is expected to drive structural margin expansion in its international customs brokerage and compliance operations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.50 Mean target$10.25 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.5020% The freight recession remains prolonged with persistent capacity oversupply, keeping pricing under pressure. Integration delays or slower-than-expected customer adoption of the Navegate platform limit near-term margin expansion, while competitive pressures in the highly fragmented 3PL space compress brokerage spreads. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.2550% Matches the consensus meanThe domestic freight market undergoes a gradual, steady recovery through late 2026. Radiant maintains stable gross margins, achieves modest organic growth, and continues to execute its share repurchase program while integrating its technology platforms to optimize operational efficiency. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.0030% A rapid cyclical upturn in the domestic freight market combined with accelerated adoption of the Navegate platform and AI initiatives drives significant volume growth and operating leverage. Radiant successfully deploys its substantial cash reserves into highly accretive, strategic acquisitions, expanding its geographic footprint and service capabilities. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |