Radian Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Specialty Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value $36.73median of 6 methods · middle span $27-$97based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $31.22Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.1B Enterprise Value $4.7B Shares Outstanding 137.7M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Radian Group is successfully transitioning from a monoline private mortgage insurer into a global multi-line specialty insurer following its transformative acquisition of Inigo Limited. This strategic shift diversifies earnings away from the cyclical U.S. housing market and positions the company for a valuation re-rating toward property and casualty insurance multiples. Backed by a robust capital position, a $1.6 billion PMIERs buffer, and a disciplined approach to capital return, Radian offers a compelling risk-reward profile with significant valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$43.80 High · most bullish analyst$48.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $34.0020% A severe macroeconomic downturn triggers rising mortgage delinquencies and declining home prices, eroding the PMIERs capital buffer. Concurrently, integration friction or elevated catastrophe losses at Inigo compress margins, forcing a suspension of share buybacks and keeping the stock discounted. Base CaseCentral scenario $43.8050% Matches the consensus meanRadian maintains steady performance in its core mortgage insurance business while Inigo provides stable, low-correlation specialty earnings. The company continues its opportunistic share repurchases and progressive dividend policy, supported by solid capital generation and a comfortable PMIERs cushion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $48.0030% The integration of Inigo drives rapid expansion in global specialty lines, doubling annual revenues and expanding return on equity by over 200 basis points. Strong housing market fundamentals and low delinquency rates keep mortgage credit losses minimal, allowing Radian to aggressively buy back undervalued shares and secure a re-rating to P&C peer multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |