Quantum Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Beta (adjusted)2.32 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $31.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 39.4M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Quantum Corporation has executed a transformative balance sheet restructuring that fundamentally alters its investment profile. By raising $100 million in a private placement led by Two Seas Capital and Oaktree Capital, and concurrently converting $57.2 million of high-coupon convertible notes held by Dialectic into equity, the company has eliminated its entire outstanding term debt. This transition to a positive net cash position removes a severe financial overhang and provides growth capital to target high-performance unstructured data storage and AI-driven workloads. While the procedural delay in filing its Fiscal 2026 Form 10-K (due to first-year audit procedures with a new firm and accelerated filer requirements) introduces short-term noise, the underlying operational turnaround is supported by preliminary Q4 FY26 revenue of $77.5 million, which exceeded the high end of previous guidance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$24.00 High · most bullish analyst$24.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $13.0020% The delayed Form 10-K filing uncovers material accounting adjustments or internal control weaknesses, leading to prolonged regulatory non-compliance. Operational execution falters amid intense competition in the data storage sector, and the massive equity dilution from the June 2026 transactions limits per-share upside. Base CaseCentral scenario $16.5050% Quantum successfully files its Form 10-K by the June 29, 2026 extension deadline, confirming preliminary Q4 FY26 revenue of $77.5 million. The company leverages its clean balance sheet to stabilize operations, reduce interest expenses, and achieve sustainable non-GAAP EBITDA profitability, aligning with consensus analyst expectations. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0030% The elimination of debt allows Quantum to aggressively invest in its next-generation AI data platform and high-performance ingest solutions. Rapid adoption of its unstructured data management solutions by enterprise and HPC customers drives high-margin software and services growth, leading to significant operating leverage and multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |