Quantum Computing Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Quantum Computing Inc

QUBTNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryComputer Hardware

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $8.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.9B

Shares Outstanding 237M diluted

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) has successfully transitioned from a speculative research-and-development phase into a vertically integrated, commercial manufacturing operation. Bolstered by a massive $1.4 billion cash reserve and the strategic acquisitions of Luminar Semiconductor Inc. (LSI) and NuCrypt, the company is uniquely positioned to scale its room-temperature, low-power integrated photonics and quantum optics platforms. Unlike competitors reliant on expensive cryogenic systems, QUBT's thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) technology offers significant size, weight, power, and cost advantages, creating a highly asymmetric risk-reward profile.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.00

Mean target$18.33

High · most bullish analyst$30.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$10.0020%

Integration delays with newly acquired entities and slower-than-expected commercial adoption of room-temperature quantum hardware limit revenue growth. High G&A and R&D burn rates persist, and technical hurdles in gate-based quantum development delay product rollouts, causing the stock to trade closer to its cash backing value.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$18.3350%

Matches the consensus mean

QUBT steadily integrates LSI and NuCrypt, meeting its FY 2026 revenue guidance of $20M-$25M. The Tempe, Arizona Fab 1 facility scales production of custom lithium niobate chips, and the company maintains its strong balance sheet while progressing toward technical milestones, including the 10 million quality factor for microring resonators.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$30.0030%

Rapid commercial adoption of the NeuraWave photonic reservoir computer and Dirac-3 optimization machines, combined with high-volume custom chip sales from the TFLN foundry, drives revenue well above management's FY 2026 guidance of $20M-$25M. The company successfully leverages its $1.4 billion cash buffer to build out Fab 2 without dilution, achieving operating profitability ahead of schedule.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Industry-leading liquidity position with $1.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments providing a multi-year runway.
Room-temperature, low-power photonics architecture bypassing the high costs and physical constraints of cryogenic quantum systems.
Immediate commercial revenue floor and established customer base through the acquisition of Luminar Semiconductor.
Proprietary domestic manufacturing capability via the TFLN chip fabrication facility in Tempe, Arizona.

Key Investment Risks

High operational cash burn rate driven by scaling R&D, manufacturing, and personnel headcount.
Technical execution risks in achieving critical hardware milestones, such as the microring resonator quality factor.
Intense competition from both well-funded pure-play quantum competitors and major technology conglomerates.
Potential integration friction from rapid M&A activity completed in early 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to meet the FY 2026 revenue guidance of $20 million to $25 million.
Significant delays or cost overruns in the planning and construction of the Fab 2 manufacturing facility.
Inability to resolve engineering hurdles required for gate-based quantum computing scaling.
A material downward revision in contract backlog or loss of key strategic partnerships.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.