Qualys Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Qualys Inc

QLYSNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)0.73

Intrinsic Value $189.17median of 6 methods · middle span $131-$218based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $187.43Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $6.5B

Enterprise Value $6.3B

Shares Outstanding 35.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Qualys represents a highly profitable, cash-generative cybersecurity player anchored by its leadership in vulnerability management. While the company continues to deliver industry-leading EBITDA margins and robust free cash flow, top-line growth has moderated to the high single digits. Management is actively reinvesting in sales, marketing, and partner channels to drive adoption of its new AI-driven Enterprise TruRisk Management (ETM) platform and Risk Operations Center (ROC). However, near-term margin contraction and early-stage adoption of these new offerings warrant a neutral stance until execution yields sustainable revenue acceleration.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$95.35

Mean target$171.74

High · most bullish analyst$220.00

Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case reflects intensifying competition in the vulnerability management space from hyper-growth peers, causing market share erosion. Sales cycles lengthen due to macroeconomic volatility, and net dollar expansion rates decline. Deliberate investments in sales and marketing fail to reignite top-line growth, resulting in permanent margin contraction without the corresponding revenue payoff.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes Qualys successfully executes its transition to partner-led growth (which now represents 52% of revenues) and maintains stable net dollar expansion rates around 103-104%. Revenue grows at 8-9% in FY 2026, in line with raised guidance of $721M-$727M, while EBITDA margins compress slightly to the mid-40s due to deliberate sales and marketing investments. Valuation multiples remain stable as the market monitors the monetization of agentic AI solutions like Agent Val.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Industry-leading profitability with Adjusted EBITDA margins consistently in the mid-to-high 40s.
Strong cash generation with a Q1 2026 free cash flow margin of 53% and active capital return via share repurchases.
Successful pivot to channel partners, which now account for 52% of total revenue and grew at 17% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
Pioneering agentic AI-driven workflows (Agent Val) that validate real exploitability and automate remediation.

Key Investment Risks

Slowing organic revenue growth, which has moderated from historical double digits to projected 8-9% for FY 2026.
Near-term margin pressure from increased operating expenses, specifically a 17% increase in sales and marketing spend in Q1 2026.
Execution risk associated with the early-stage adoption and monetization of the new ETM and ROC platforms.
Intense competition in the cloud security and vulnerability management markets from larger, consolidated platforms.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net Dollar Expansion Rate dropping below 100%, indicating customer churn or contraction.
Full-year FY 2026 revenue coming in below the guided range of $721 million.
EBITDA margins falling below the low-40s, indicating a failure to achieve operating leverage from sales investments.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.