QUALCOMM Incorporated Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.44 Intrinsic Value $133.36median of 6 methods · middle span $109-$147based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $182.09Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $194.5B Enterprise Value $206.8B Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Qualcomm offers a positively skewed diversification thesis at the August 28, 2026 issuer-reported price of $162.82. Management targets $40 billion of fiscal-2029 non-handset revenue, including more than $15 billion from data centers and $10 billion from automotive, together with more than $18 of non-GAAP EPS. These objectives could materially reduce handset concentration, while the $3.68 annualized dividend and expanded repurchase authorization support shareholder returns. The principal question is execution: data-center commercialization and sustained automotive and IoT expansion must offset handset cyclicality, customer vertical integration, China exposure and supply-chain constraints. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$100.00 Mean target$193.10 High · most bullish analyst$400.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $120.0020% Data-center commercialization or automotive conversion falls materially behind plan while handset weakness, customer vertical integration, China exposure, input-cost inflation or supply constraints pressure results. Management reduces one or more fiscal-2029 targets, and the shares revisit approximately the lower end of the issuer-reported 52-week range. Base CaseCentral scenario $193.1055% Matches the consensus meanQualcomm makes credible progress toward its fiscal-2029 targets, with automotive and data centers offsetting subdued handset conditions and supporting gradual earnings expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $260.0025% Qualcomm exceeds its fiscal-2029 diversification objectives as data-center products scale faster than planned, automotive converts its expanded design-win pipeline, and IoT strengthens. Non-handset revenue surpasses $40 billion and non-GAAP EPS exceeds $18, supporting a price target near the upper end of the issuer-reported 52-week trading range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |