Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryTravel Services Beta (adjusted)1.26 Intrinsic Value $45.86median of 6 methods · middle span $34-$82based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $50.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.4B Enterprise Value $1.5B Shares Outstanding 28M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Mar 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Pursuit Attractions & Hospitality, Inc. (NYSE: PRSU) represents a highly compelling investment opportunity in the experiential travel sector. Relaunched as a pure-play standalone entity following the divestiture of its GES Exhibitions business in late 2024, Pursuit owns and operates a unique, high-moat portfolio of supply-constrained, non-replicable attractions and lodging properties across iconic destinations (e.g., Banff, Jasper, Glacier, Denali, Iceland, and Costa Rica). The company's 'Refresh, Build, Buy' strategy is driving strong pricing power and operating leverage, as evidenced by robust same-store yield growth and the highly accretive acquisition of Tabacón Thermal Resort & Spa. With a strong balance sheet, low leverage, and a clear path to double-digit Adjusted EBITDA growth, Pursuit is well-positioned to capture secular demand for premium experiential travel. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$58.00 Mean target$62.00 High · most bullish analyst$70.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $58.00 The bear case centers on potential operational disruptions from climate-related events, such as wildfires in Jasper or Glacier National Parks, which can severely impact seasonal visitation. High capital intensity and execution delays in the front-loaded $200 million capex cycle could depress near-term free cash flow and return metrics. Furthermore, a broader macroeconomic slowdown or persistent inflationary pressures on labor and utilities could squeeze operating margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $62.00 Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Pursuit successfully delivers on its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $123 million to $133 million (representing ~9% growth at the midpoint, excluding Flyover). The pending $78.4 million sale of the Flyover business closes by the extended July 31, 2026 deadline, bringing pro forma net leverage below 1.0x and providing substantial liquidity. Same-store lodging RevPAR and attraction ticket prices continue to grow at mid-single-digit rates, supported by solid peak-season bookings. Bull CaseUpside scenario $70.00 The bull case is predicated on accelerated execution of the $300 million organic reinvestment pipeline, yielding higher-than-expected returns (exceeding the 15% IRR hurdle rate). Strong international travel recovery, particularly the gradual return of high-spending Asian tour groups to Canada, drives significant volume and pricing leverage. Additionally, the successful integration of Tabacón and further opportunistic, high-return acquisitions scale the portfolio rapidly, while aggressive share repurchases under the remaining authorization amplify EPS growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |