PulteGroup Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResidential Construction Beta (adjusted)1.13 Intrinsic Value $97.99median of 6 methods · middle span $91-$159based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $116.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $22.2B Enterprise Value $20.9B Shares Outstanding 189.4M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PulteGroup's second-quarter 2026 operating evidence is balanced. Net new orders rose 6% and unit backlog rose 2%, supported by an 8% increase in average community count. Conversely, closings declined 8%, home-sale revenue declined 11%, and home-sale gross margin fell to 25.0% from 27.0% a year earlier. The order and community trends provide recovery optionality, including planned Northwest Florida expansion, but affordability pressure, volatile mortgage rates, lower deliveries, and margin compression limit conviction. This is a valuation-neutral Hold rather than a price-target-based recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$100.00 Mean target$140.62 High · most bullish analyst$166.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $100.0019% Macroeconomic uncertainty, volatile mortgage rates, and strained affordability weaken order momentum while incentives and competitive pricing push home-sale gross margin below 25.0%. Continued pressure on closings and average selling prices would extend the year-over-year revenue and earnings contraction observed in the second quarter. Base CaseCentral scenario $140.6258% Matches the consensus meanDemand remains uneven: community growth supports orders and backlog, but affordability pressure keeps closing volume and realized margins below prior-year levels. PulteGroup continues balancing price and sales pace without a decisive near-term acceleration. Bull CaseUpside scenario $166.0023% Housing conditions stabilize, PulteGroup converts its larger community footprint and 2% higher unit backlog into improved deliveries, and the 6% order increase proves durable. Planned Northwest Florida expansion, initially involving 1,326 contracted homesites with options potentially increasing the total to 2,653, adds medium-term growth capacity. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |