Public Service Enterprise Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Public Service Enterprise Group Inc

PEGNYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryMulti-Utilities

Beta (adjusted)0.67

Intrinsic Value $67.87median of 6 methods · middle span $45-$83based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $67.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $33.8B

Enterprise Value $57.2B

Shares Outstanding 500M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend9 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

PSEG combines regulated infrastructure investment with a 3,758 MW carbon-free nuclear fleet. First-half 2026 non-GAAP operating EPS rose to $2.41 from $2.20, and management maintained full-year guidance of $4.28-$4.40 and its 6%-8% long-term operating-earnings growth outlook. The balanced view reflects visible regulated growth and nuclear-contracting upside against regulatory-recovery, capital-cost, severe-weather, nuclear-operating and commodity-price risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$73.00

Mean target$85.81

High · most bullish analyst$96.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$73.0023%

Regulatory disallowances or delays, capital-cost inflation, weaker nuclear economics, extended outages or severe operating events cause earnings to fall below guidance and reduce planned regulated investment.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$85.8156%

Matches the consensus mean

PSEG delivers within 2026 guidance and advances its regulated capital program, supporting rate-base and dividend growth, while nuclear operations contribute at anticipated market prices.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$96.0021%

Execution near the upper end of the 6%-8% long-term earnings-growth outlook, incremental regulated investment and multi-year contracts for nuclear output would strengthen earnings visibility beyond the current plan.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management maintained 2026 non-GAAP operating EPS guidance of $4.28-$4.40 and a 6%-8% long-term growth outlook through 2030.
The $24-$28 billion five-year capital program is expected to be funded without new equity issuance or asset sales, limiting planned dilution.
The indicative 2026 annual dividend of $2.68 represents PSEG's 15th consecutive annual dividend increase.

Key Investment Risks

Regulated growth depends on timely approvals and recovery of infrastructure investment through state and federal regulatory processes.
Nuclear earnings remain exposed to operational performance, market prices, production-tax-credit economics, fuel availability and contracting outcomes.
Severe weather, equipment failures, cyber incidents, supply-chain disruption and rising labor or material costs could impair service or increase costs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.