PTC Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

PTC Inc

PTCNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)0.99

Intrinsic Value $191.68median of 6 methods · middle span $133-$256based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $146.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $15.9B

Enterprise Value $16.9B

Shares Outstanding 117.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

PTC's underlying subscription performance supports a neutral-positive operating view: third-quarter constant-currency ARR growth excluding divested businesses reached 9.1%, exceeded guidance, and prompted management to raise its full-year ARR outlook. Product investment is broadening the Intelligent Product Lifecycle proposition through a new AI platform, 12 AI agents, 10 integrations and portfolio-wide enhancements, while BMW Group's enterprise-wide Codebeamer implementation provides evidence of strategic adoption. The counterweights are an 8% constant-currency revenue decline, flat as-reported ARR after the Kepware and ThingWorx divestiture, transition-related comparability issues and uncertainty over monetizing AI capabilities. A Hold recommendation is used because operating momentum and execution risks are balanced.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$140.00

Mean target$173.35

High · most bullish analyst$230.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$140.0018%

Underlying ARR growth falls below 9% as manufacturing uncertainty, delayed customer purchases, go-to-market execution issues or slow adoption of AI-enabled products weaken demand. Continued revenue contraction and greater-than-expected disruption from the Kepware and ThingWorx divestiture would further reduce confidence in the focused portfolio strategy.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$173.3558%

Matches the consensus mean

Constant-currency ARR growth excluding divested businesses remains near the 9.0%-9.5% FY2026 outlook, customer churn stays low and the focused Intelligent Product Lifecycle portfolio sustains demand. Revenue remains uneven because of ASC 606 timing and divestiture comparability, while AI commercialization contributes gradually rather than immediately.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$230.0024%

Underlying ARR growth exceeds the top of the FY2026 guidance range as stronger pipeline conversion, enterprise deployments such as BMW Group's Codebeamer implementation and adoption of PTC's AI agents, integrations and new products produce incremental expansion. Revenue and cash-flow performance subsequently converge with recurring-revenue momentum.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Third-quarter constant-currency ARR growth excluding divested businesses was 9.1%, above guidance, and management raised its FY2026 ARR outlook.
Third-quarter operating cash flow and free cash flow grew 7% and 3%, respectively, with both results exceeding management's guidance ranges.
PTC introduced two cross-portfolio products, a new AI platform, 12 AI agents, 10 integrations and more than 100 portfolio enhancements.
BMW Group implemented Codebeamer as an enterprise-wide requirements-management solution using a shared data model across mechanical, electrical and software disciplines.

Key Investment Risks

Third-quarter revenue declined 8% year over year on a constant-currency basis, demonstrating that ARR momentum does not necessarily translate into smooth reported revenue growth.
As-reported ARR was flat year over year in the third quarter following the Kepware and ThingWorx divestiture, complicating period-to-period comparisons.
AI investments may not generate expected ARR or cash flow if capabilities are delayed, customers adopt them slowly, customers do not modernize product-data foundations or competing solutions gain adoption.
Transition-services proceeds may not fully offset divested costs, and the Kepware and ThingWorx transaction could disrupt operations more than management expects.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.