Provident Financial Services Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $22.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.9B Shares Outstanding 130.6M diluted Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Provident Financial Services (PFS) presents a compelling investment opportunity characterized by robust asset quality, attractive valuation, and steady earnings growth following its strategic merger integration. Despite recent market underperformance, the bank's core profitability remains strong, supported by record non-interest income from its wealth management and insurance divisions, alongside effective deposit cost relief. While credit quality metrics require close monitoring due to a recent commercial bankruptcy exposure, the overall financial foundation remains solid with expanding net interest margins and a reliable dividend yield. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$27.92 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.0015% Broader credit headwinds and persistent high-cost funding pressures compress net interest margins below the guided range. The resolution of the senior-housing loan exposure results in higher-than-expected credit losses, and tight expense control becomes unsustainable due to required technology and risk management investments, dragging the stock down. Base CaseCentral scenario $27.9255% Matches the consensus meanProvident maintains steady profitability with gradual net interest margin gains of 4 to 5 basis points per quarter. Disciplined expense control and stable loan-to-deposit ratios support consistent earnings. The commercial bankruptcy exposure is resolved with minimal loss by year-end, and the bank continues to pay its reliable dividend, trading close to the consensus target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.0030% The integration of Lakeland Bancorp accelerates cost synergies and market share gains in key Northeast regions. Net interest margins expand faster than expected, driven by favorable deposit repricing and robust commercial loan production. Record fee income from Beacon Trust and Provident Protection Plus continues to diversify revenue streams, pushing the stock toward the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |